We are seeing similar signs in the Vancouver real estate market and many are now saying that the price adjustments may have bottomed out sometime towards the end of 2008 or the first couple of months of 2009. And in fact we may have seen prices of Vancouver real estate bounce back a bit from their lows earlier this year.

New home construction rose for a second straight month in June, in what analysts say is another sign that the worst may be over for the Canadian housing market.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Thursday there were 140,700 new homes constructed in June on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Construction was up almost 8% from the 130,300 May figure.
“There are some pretty good signs that we are starting to see in the housing market,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist with CMHC. “We’ve seen it for quite a few months on the existing homes side.”
Existing home sales rose 42% from January to May across the country and the early indications are that June was strongest month this year. Sales in Vancouver were up 76% last month compared with a year earlier and Calgary and Toronto both recorded 27% increases during the same period.
Existing home inventories have begun to shrink across the country, convincing builders to ramp up construction. CMHC said urban single family homes — considered the best barometer of the new home market — climbed 7.3% in May from a month earlier.
“It’s well into seller’s market territory again with the May and April numbers,” said Mr. Dugan.
The optimism about the Canadian market comes despite the fact new construction at 140,000 units is way off the 200,000-plus figure the market in Canada has seen for the past seven years.
“I can only speculate, but maybe a lot of people are relieved we are not seeing the decreases we have seen in the U.S.,” said Mr. Dugan. “Peak-to-trough, the decline in the U.S. was something like 80%. In Canada, that would mean we’d have to have 55,000 starts. Some people may have thought that’s where the Canadian market was going.”
The consensus among economist is construction won’t return to pre-recession levels but will gradually improve in the coming months.
“This month’s increase is an important confirmation that the Canadian housing sector is past the worst and in recovery mode,” said Marco Lettieri, an economist with National Bank. “The recovery seems to be broad based with gains observed in both multiple [which includes condominium construction] and single units.”
Robert Kavcic, an economist with Bank of Montreal, said there could be some room for modest growth in starts in the coming months.
“Higher affordability and improved consumer confidence brought buyers off the sidelines this spring,” said Mr. Kavcic.
A report this week from RBC Economics said declining prices and lower interest rates led to one of the biggest quarterly improvements in affordability in history. The bank said monthly payments on a typical detached bungalow in Canada had decreased by almost 17% from a year earlier.
Royal LePage Real Estate Services was also forced this week to upgrade its forecast for 2009 because of the improved market conditions. It now expects 430,000 sales this year, an improvement from its previous call of 416,000, but still down 1% from a year ago.
“I think 2009 will go down as a moderate correction as opposed to the deep and sustained recession that we had first feared,” said Phil Soper, chief executive of the real estate company.
Royal LePage expects prices this year will still fall but not by as much as previously feared. It expects the average sale price in 2009 to be $297,000, a 2% drop from last year. It had previously forecast a 3.5% decline.
Mr. Soper said a decline is still tough to swallow after years of compound growth of close to 10% in the housing market but it’s proving to be a far cry from what has happened in the United States.
“We are long way from the 35% decline that a lot of regions in the United States are experiencing. It’s a very different kind of correction,” said Mr. Soper

http://bestmortgagesvancouver.wordpress.com/2009/07/16/worst-may-be-over-for-the-housing-market/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC  canadian funding corp CEO

More than half a million Canadians have fallen behind on their various credit payments, fuelling a 19 per cent rise in the average national delinquency rate in the one-year period ending May 31, 2009, says a new report from Equifax Canada.

The credit bureau called the double-digit jump “alarming,” noting the average delinquency rate for Canada hit 1.52 per cent at the end of May.

Much of the trouble stemmed from missed payments on credit card bills and for sales finance purchases of items such as furniture and electronics.

Equifax defines delinquent bills as those that are at least 90 days overdue.

Nadim Abdo, an Equifax vice-president, stressed the “sharpest increase” in delinquencies resulted from credit card and sales finance purchases, which have risen by 38 per cent and 58 per cent, respectively, since May 2008.

Rising delinquencies in those areas are troubling because consumers tend to miss payments on those unsecured credit products before they fail to pay back collateral-backed loans such as mortgages, bank loans and lines of credit, Abdo said.

US Credit Card Delinquency Rate Jumps 11 Percent

Inquiring minds might be asking for a comparison between Canada and the US. For the answer, please consider 1Q credit card delinquency rate jumps 11 percent.

Credit card holders who in ordinary years might have used their tax refunds to pay down their balances apparently spent the money elsewhere as the recession deepened in the first quarter.

That’s one of the conclusions that may be drawn from data showing the delinquency rate for bank-issued credit cards rose 11 percent in the first three months of the year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.

The delinquency rate jumped to 1.32 percent this year, from 1.19 percent in the first three months of 2008, TransUnion said. The statistic measures the percentage of card holders who are three months or more past due on their payments for cards bearing MasterCard and Visa logos, along with American Express and Discover cards.

The average total debt on bank cards also rose, jumping to $5,776 from $5,548 last year.

TransUnion measures credit card delinquencies at 90 days, but tracks mortgage delinquencies at 60 days. Becker said that is because card payments are typically much smaller than mortgage payments, and it’s easier to catch up on past due cards. For people in financial distress, it’s much harder to produce two mortgage payments once they fall behind, he explained.

Not surprisingly, bank card delinquency rates remained the highest in the states hardest hit by the mortgage meltdown: Nevada, Florida, Arizona and California.

North and South Dakota and Alaska, the states with the lowest rate of mortgage delinquencies, are also the states with the lowest credit card delinquencies, TransUnion data showed.

TransUnion, which samples 27 million consumer records to produce its data, expects the rate of credit card delinquencies to rise for the rest of the year, ultimately reaching about 1.7 percent.

Note that the US rate was a comparison of March 2009 to March 2008 while the rate for Canada was a comparison of May 2009 to May 2008. Thus Canada and the US are following a similar path.

Dynamic Maps

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has Dynamic Maps of Bank Card and Mortgage Delinquencies in the United States that some may wish to consider.

In regards to mortgages, Canada has some “catching down” to do, and it will. All the bubble areas such as Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, etc are going to get hit hard.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

http://offshoreinn.com/investing/500000-canadians-90-days-behind-on-credit-payments-delinquency-rate-hits-152-us-delinquency-rate-is-132/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

After all, while real estate throughout the world was doubling every few years, Canadian homes were moving up relatively modestly.

While risk in the rest of the world had been eliminated through complicated instruments that everyone trusted “someone else” understood, Canada was still using the traditional loan-and-hold mortgage model…

I’m sure you see where this is going.

Canada’s banks weren’t caught up in one of the biggest global bubbles of the last few decades, and they aren’t participating in the fallout either. It’s why investors around the world are looking at Canada, and three of its banks that may be the safest in the world.

One of the few Healthy Economies

Make no mistake – with almost 80% of Canada’s exports going to the United States, the global mess has touched our “neighbor to the north” deeply. But in almost every regard, it’s doing better than the rest of the world.

* GDP actually grew last year – only 0.1%, but still, it grew

* Unemployment is a “mere” 6.1%

* As a major commodity producer, Canada is enjoying the current mini-commodity boom immensely

Indeed, it’s easy to forget, Canada is the world’s eighth-largest exporter of oil, and second only to the Saudis for proven reserves. What’s more, even as Saudi Arabia is sucking the last out of her major oil fields, Canada is only now beginning to tap the vast oil sands of Alberta.

So, as inflation hits the world markets… and inflation fears cause governments like China to convert dollar holdings into commodities like oil, gold, and copper (all of which Canada produces in spades), our northern neighbor looks to be one of the healthier economies going forward.

One of the Few Fully Functioning Financial Systems

Canadian banks bear a large responsibility for the country’s good fortune. Rather than get caught up in the hysteria that gripped almost every major financial institution the last few years, Canada’s banks kept doing business the boring, old-fashioned way.

The way that it’s proven to work.

Now, everyone wants to emulate Canada’s banks.

In October 2008 – while the rest of the world burned – the World Economic Forum deemed Canada’s banking system the safest and soundest in the world. (The U.S. system came in fat 40.)

While the top five U.S. banks lost $8.3 billion in 2008 (and continue to bleed money in 2009, no matter what their funny accounting numbers say), the top five Canadian banks made $8.2 billion (with no financial chicanery required).

In short, Canada and Canadian banks in particular, are in as good a shape as they’ve ever been. And compared to the world as a whole, the country is in the best shape of its life.

Considering how well the banks are doing and how wise it would be to hedge against another downturn in the market – which is likely to hit sometime before September if it comes – you’d be wise to put some of your money into the soundest banks in the world.

The Safest Banks in the World

Our favorites are the Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), the Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD). All three are up over 30% for the year, all three pay very hefty dividends, and all three have been rated among the safest banks in the world by Global Finance magazine.

They’d be great buys even in the best of times. But with the possibility of worse times still ahead, it only makes sense to pick a few of these up. Canadian banks can help you weather any coming storms and profit from any economic recovery on the horizon.

http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/June/canadian-banking.html

Interesting thoughts, Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO, says.