“Higher multiple starts were nearly offset by a decline in single starts and rural area starts in April. As a result, total housing starts edged higher in April,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 5.1 per cent to 182,500 units in April. Urban multiple starts increased by 27.2 per cent to 98,600 units, while single urban starts decreased by 12.7 per cent to 83,900 units.

April’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased 16.4 per cent in British Columbia, 6.7 per cent in the Prairie region, 4.5 per cent in Ontario, and 1.1 per cent in Quebec. Urban starts decreased 3.3 per cent in Atlantic Canada.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19,200 units in April.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

Housing Starts

Following a total of 149,081 units in 2009, housing starts are expected to be in the range of 166,900 to 199,600 units in 2010, with a point forecast of 182,000 units. In 2011, housing starts will be in the range of 148,600 to 208,800 units, with a point forecast of 179,600 units.

“Canadian housing markets have recovered from the low levels posted in early 2009,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC. “Moving forward, housing starts will moderate as activity becomes more in-line with long term demographic fundamentals. New measures for government-backed mortgage insurance introduced by the Government of Canada that took effect on April 19, 2010 will continue to support the long-term stability of Canada’s housing market.”

Mr. Dugan also noted that the existing home market will move towards balanced conditions over the next two years as MLS®1 sales ease and inventory levels increase. In late 2009 and early 2010, sales activity included some pent-up demand from early 2009. Once this demand is exhausted, and as mortgage rates gradually rise, the pace of activity in the resale market will ease. As a result, existing home sales will be in the range of 484,000 to 513,300 units in 2010, with a point forecast of 497,300 units, and then move slightly lower in 2011 to be in the range of 443,500 to 504,900 units, with a point forecast of 473,500 units.

With an improved balance between demand and supply, the average MLS® price is expected to stabilize through the end of 2010 and then rise modestly in 2011.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

* The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook are based on information available as of April 23, 2010. Where applicable, forecast ranges are also presented in order to reflect economic uncertainty.

“An increase in residential housing starts combined with rising MLS® sales is expected in New Brunswick in 2010 after seeing reduced activity in both the new home and resale market in most provincial urban centres last year,” said Claude Gautreau, CMHC’s senior market analyst for New Brunswick. Housing activity during the first quarter of 2010 has yielded positive results as economic fundamentals in the province remained strong, highlighted by historically high employment levels. These conditions are expected to persist over the forecast period.

In New Brunswick’s three large urban areas – Saint John, Moncton and Fredericton – residential starts are expected to outpace last year’s totals. However, the anticipated increase in housing starts in 2010 and 2011 will be moderate. The existing home market is expected to follow the same general trend with steady price growth in both 2010 and 2011, combined with a moderate increase in sales.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a
variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

YouTube video New Brunswick

“Housing starts improved in both the singles and multiples segments in January,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “These increases are similar to the ones that occurred in December.”

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 4.4 per cent to 165,200 units in January. Urban multiple starts increased by 5.7 per cent to 76,300 units while single urban starts increased by 3.3 per cent to 88,900 units.

January’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 19.8 per cent in British Columbia, by 7.3 per cent in Quebec, by 2.3 per cent in Atlantic Canada, and by 1.5 per cent in the Ontario. In the Prairie region, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 4.8 per cent.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 21,100 units in January.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

Case by Case Basis

As part of Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the Government announced $1 billion for social housing renovation and retrofit. Of the $1 billion, $850 million is being delivered by provinces and territories on a cost-matched basis for existing federally assisted social housing projects that they administer on behalf of the partnership. The remaining $150 million is being delivered by CMHC for existing federally assisted off-reserve housing that it directly administers. Repairs that are eligible for funding include general improvements, energy-efficiency upgrades or conversions, and modifications in support of persons with disabilities.

“Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, our government is taking action to help ensure our economic recovery and create the conditions for long-term growth,” said the Honourable Christian Paradis, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Funding renovation and retrofit projects, like these ones, will not only improve the quality of life of the residents by keeping their homes safe and affordable but also help stimulate the economy and create jobs.”

As of February 1, 2010, CMHC is accepting applications from eligible project sponsors for the remaining $75 million funding for year two. Sponsor groups can apply online or through the mail. Eligible repairs include general improvements, energy-efficiency upgrades or conversions, and modifications in support of persons with disabilities.

Introduction to Affordable Housing

The Honourable Christian Paradis, Minister of Natural Resources, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), made the announcement today.

“Our government’s Economic Action Plan is improving housing conditions for those who live in First Nation communities in Quebec. We are also stimulating the local economy by creating jobs,” said Minister Paradis.

Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the Government of Canada has committed $400 million over the next two years to help First Nation communities build needed new housing, repair and remediate existing non-profit housing for their members, and complement housing programs offered by CMHC. This investment will also provide an economic stimulus for many First Nations and surrounding areas by creating jobs.

The application calls for the year one (2009/2010) new funding initiatives under Canada’s Economic Action Plan were very successful and generated a large number of applications. As a result, CMHC will be fully allocating all the available funding for the fiscal year.

The year two (2010/2011) application call is now open. Applications for this second round of funding will be accepted between February 1, 2010 and February 22, 2010.

Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, some $45 million in federal investments will be made available to First Nations in Quebec to address immediate housing needs.

CMHC will allocate $150,000 to retrofit 48 social housing units in Kahnawake and Kanesatake to improve living conditions in these First Nation communities.

We are seeing similar signs in the Vancouver real estate market and many are now saying that the price adjustments may have bottomed out sometime towards the end of 2008 or the first couple of months of 2009. And in fact we may have seen prices of Vancouver real estate bounce back a bit from their lows earlier this year.

New home construction rose for a second straight month in June, in what analysts say is another sign that the worst may be over for the Canadian housing market.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Thursday there were 140,700 new homes constructed in June on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Construction was up almost 8% from the 130,300 May figure.
“There are some pretty good signs that we are starting to see in the housing market,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist with CMHC. “We’ve seen it for quite a few months on the existing homes side.”
Existing home sales rose 42% from January to May across the country and the early indications are that June was strongest month this year. Sales in Vancouver were up 76% last month compared with a year earlier and Calgary and Toronto both recorded 27% increases during the same period.
Existing home inventories have begun to shrink across the country, convincing builders to ramp up construction. CMHC said urban single family homes — considered the best barometer of the new home market — climbed 7.3% in May from a month earlier.
“It’s well into seller’s market territory again with the May and April numbers,” said Mr. Dugan.
The optimism about the Canadian market comes despite the fact new construction at 140,000 units is way off the 200,000-plus figure the market in Canada has seen for the past seven years.
“I can only speculate, but maybe a lot of people are relieved we are not seeing the decreases we have seen in the U.S.,” said Mr. Dugan. “Peak-to-trough, the decline in the U.S. was something like 80%. In Canada, that would mean we’d have to have 55,000 starts. Some people may have thought that’s where the Canadian market was going.”
The consensus among economist is construction won’t return to pre-recession levels but will gradually improve in the coming months.
“This month’s increase is an important confirmation that the Canadian housing sector is past the worst and in recovery mode,” said Marco Lettieri, an economist with National Bank. “The recovery seems to be broad based with gains observed in both multiple [which includes condominium construction] and single units.”
Robert Kavcic, an economist with Bank of Montreal, said there could be some room for modest growth in starts in the coming months.
“Higher affordability and improved consumer confidence brought buyers off the sidelines this spring,” said Mr. Kavcic.
A report this week from RBC Economics said declining prices and lower interest rates led to one of the biggest quarterly improvements in affordability in history. The bank said monthly payments on a typical detached bungalow in Canada had decreased by almost 17% from a year earlier.
Royal LePage Real Estate Services was also forced this week to upgrade its forecast for 2009 because of the improved market conditions. It now expects 430,000 sales this year, an improvement from its previous call of 416,000, but still down 1% from a year ago.
“I think 2009 will go down as a moderate correction as opposed to the deep and sustained recession that we had first feared,” said Phil Soper, chief executive of the real estate company.
Royal LePage expects prices this year will still fall but not by as much as previously feared. It expects the average sale price in 2009 to be $297,000, a 2% drop from last year. It had previously forecast a 3.5% decline.
Mr. Soper said a decline is still tough to swallow after years of compound growth of close to 10% in the housing market but it’s proving to be a far cry from what has happened in the United States.
“We are long way from the 35% decline that a lot of regions in the United States are experiencing. It’s a very different kind of correction,” said Mr. Soper

http://bestmortgagesvancouver.wordpress.com/2009/07/16/worst-may-be-over-for-the-housing-market/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC  canadian funding corp CEO

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s Excellence in Education Award honours secondary and post-secondary educators in Ontario who have encouraged students in the development of sustainable communities by integrating sustainable concepts in housing an community development into their curriculum.

Go to the CMHC website for more information and past winner profiles: http://www.cmhc.ca/en/inpr/su/su_002.cfm

The call for nominations is open now until May 31, 2009.

Categories include: Innovative Teaching, Pollution Prevention/Reduction, Sustainable Planning/Practices/Projects, Environmental Management, Resource Conservation, Technology and Innovation, Environmental Design, and Waste Management.

VICTORIA, May 30, 2009 — Speaking to delegates at the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada‘s (CHFC) Annual General Meeting, Mr. Ed Komarnicki, Parliamentary Secretary to the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, and Minister responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), today highlighted investments under Canada’s Economic Action Plan aimed at the renovation and retrofit of existing social housing.

“Across Canada, social housing helps almost 625,000 households and we know that much of this housing is getting older,” said Mr. Komarnicki. “Our investments will provide money to renovate and energy-retrofit social housing and improve the quality of life for residents of these communities by keeping their homes safe and affordable.”

As part of Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the Government announced $1 billion for social housing renovation and retrofit. Eligible repairs include general improvements, energy-efficiency upgrades or conversions and modifications in support of persons with disabilities. Overall, Canada’s Economic Action Plan provides $7.8 billion to build quality housing, stimulate construction, encourage home ownership and enhance energy efficiency.
CREA President Cal Lindberg on the 2009 Residential Real Estate Market in Canada

“Our government is taking timely and focused action to invest in housing,” added Mr. Komarnicki. “These investments will not only build quality housing but they will stimulate construction, encourage home ownership and enhance energy efficiency.”

During his remarks, Mr. Komarnicki also presented the CMHC Award for Outstanding Contribution to Co-operative Housing. The award, recognizing the achievements of individuals and organizations who have made significant contributions to co-operative housing in Canada, was presented to representatives of the Federal Co-operative Housing Stabilization Fund.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable, and affordable homes — homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country.

CHF Canada is the national voice of the Canadian co-operative housing movement. Its members include nearly 900 non-profit housing co-operatives and other organizations across Canada. More than a quarter of a million Canadians live in housing co-ops, in every province and territory.

To find out more about how the Government of Canada and CMHC are working to build stronger homes and communities for all Canadians, call CMHC at 1-800-668-2642 or visit www.cmhc.ca/housingactionplan. To learn more about Canada’s Economic Action Plan, visit www.actionplan.gc.ca.

According to Canadian Funding Corp (CFC) following a 22-year high in 2008, CMHC is forecasting a 28.5 per cent reduction in single-detached starts this year. Regina will see 700 single-detached starts in 2009, down from 979 in 2008. Forecast starts activity in 2009 will fall back to 572 single-detached starts. In 2010, single activity will see an uptick, reaching 750 units by year-end. Economic growth and migration are seeing moderation in 2009, leading to builders scaling back on new housing starts and addressing a growing inventory of single units.

This adjustment is already taking place in Regina. To the end of March, single starts were 40.6 per cent lower than the end of the first quarter of 2008.

The supply of single units in Regina is slowly trending down since peaking at 963 units last November. Notwithstanding this recent reversal, supply remains higher than at this time in 2008. At the end of March, the sum of single-detached units under construction and complete and unabsorbed was up 25 per cent over the first quarter figure in 2008, having reached more than 900 units. Supply had been increasing on a year-over-year basis since March of 2004 but we expect the recent downward trend to continue as units reach completion.

Most of the single-detached supply is in the form of units that are under construction. The number of single units under construction peaked in November at 929 units. By the end of the first quarter there had been a reduction in the number of single dwellings at various stages of construction but this number remains more than 23 per cent higher than the end of the first quarter in 2008.

The number of complete and unoccupied units has more than doubled since March 2008 and is now at more than 40 units. There have been increases, on a year-over-year basis, in the number of complete and unoccupied singles since April 2008.

Given current absorption rates of approximately 60 units monthly, the supply of ownership (largely single-detached) units had surpassed 15 months. The months of supply figure has been trending down since December 2008 due to reducing supply stemming from falling starts. The peak occurred in November at more than 16 months of supply.

Starts in bedroom communities decelerate but retain share

Single starts in Regina’s bedroom communities fell off 43 per cent in the first quarter. So far this year, these communities have captured 25.6 per cent of total single starts. This is close to the 2008 first quarter share of 27 per cent. Over the last five years, bedroom communities have seen an average of 21 per cent of single starts fall within their boundaries.

New House Price Index

The New House Price Index (NHPI) measures the change in price for a new home, while keeping the specifications of each home constant over two consecutive periods. To the end of February, Statistics Canada’s New House Price Index (NHPI) in Regina increased by 15 per cent compared to same time last year. Year-over-year growth has been lessening since peaking in the second quarter of 2008 and we expect the increase in the NHPI will be 4.8 per cent in 2009 and 2.7 per cent in 2010.

Mortgage rates

Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout 2009, remaining within 25-75 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will increase very gradually during the course of 2010, reflecting a rise in government of Canada bond yields. For 2010, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 4.75-6.00 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 5.00-6.75 per cent range.