“An increase in residential housing starts combined with rising MLS® sales is expected in New Brunswick in 2010 after seeing reduced activity in both the new home and resale market in most provincial urban centres last year,” said Claude Gautreau, CMHC’s senior market analyst for New Brunswick. Housing activity during the first quarter of 2010 has yielded positive results as economic fundamentals in the province remained strong, highlighted by historically high employment levels. These conditions are expected to persist over the forecast period.

In New Brunswick’s three large urban areas – Saint John, Moncton and Fredericton – residential starts are expected to outpace last year’s totals. However, the anticipated increase in housing starts in 2010 and 2011 will be moderate. The existing home market is expected to follow the same general trend with steady price growth in both 2010 and 2011, combined with a moderate increase in sales.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a
variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

YouTube video New Brunswick

We are seeing similar signs in the Vancouver real estate market and many are now saying that the price adjustments may have bottomed out sometime towards the end of 2008 or the first couple of months of 2009. And in fact we may have seen prices of Vancouver real estate bounce back a bit from their lows earlier this year.

New home construction rose for a second straight month in June, in what analysts say is another sign that the worst may be over for the Canadian housing market.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Thursday there were 140,700 new homes constructed in June on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Construction was up almost 8% from the 130,300 May figure.
“There are some pretty good signs that we are starting to see in the housing market,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist with CMHC. “We’ve seen it for quite a few months on the existing homes side.”
Existing home sales rose 42% from January to May across the country and the early indications are that June was strongest month this year. Sales in Vancouver were up 76% last month compared with a year earlier and Calgary and Toronto both recorded 27% increases during the same period.
Existing home inventories have begun to shrink across the country, convincing builders to ramp up construction. CMHC said urban single family homes — considered the best barometer of the new home market — climbed 7.3% in May from a month earlier.
“It’s well into seller’s market territory again with the May and April numbers,” said Mr. Dugan.
The optimism about the Canadian market comes despite the fact new construction at 140,000 units is way off the 200,000-plus figure the market in Canada has seen for the past seven years.
“I can only speculate, but maybe a lot of people are relieved we are not seeing the decreases we have seen in the U.S.,” said Mr. Dugan. “Peak-to-trough, the decline in the U.S. was something like 80%. In Canada, that would mean we’d have to have 55,000 starts. Some people may have thought that’s where the Canadian market was going.”
The consensus among economist is construction won’t return to pre-recession levels but will gradually improve in the coming months.
“This month’s increase is an important confirmation that the Canadian housing sector is past the worst and in recovery mode,” said Marco Lettieri, an economist with National Bank. “The recovery seems to be broad based with gains observed in both multiple [which includes condominium construction] and single units.”
Robert Kavcic, an economist with Bank of Montreal, said there could be some room for modest growth in starts in the coming months.
“Higher affordability and improved consumer confidence brought buyers off the sidelines this spring,” said Mr. Kavcic.
A report this week from RBC Economics said declining prices and lower interest rates led to one of the biggest quarterly improvements in affordability in history. The bank said monthly payments on a typical detached bungalow in Canada had decreased by almost 17% from a year earlier.
Royal LePage Real Estate Services was also forced this week to upgrade its forecast for 2009 because of the improved market conditions. It now expects 430,000 sales this year, an improvement from its previous call of 416,000, but still down 1% from a year ago.
“I think 2009 will go down as a moderate correction as opposed to the deep and sustained recession that we had first feared,” said Phil Soper, chief executive of the real estate company.
Royal LePage expects prices this year will still fall but not by as much as previously feared. It expects the average sale price in 2009 to be $297,000, a 2% drop from last year. It had previously forecast a 3.5% decline.
Mr. Soper said a decline is still tough to swallow after years of compound growth of close to 10% in the housing market but it’s proving to be a far cry from what has happened in the United States.
“We are long way from the 35% decline that a lot of regions in the United States are experiencing. It’s a very different kind of correction,” said Mr. Soper

http://bestmortgagesvancouver.wordpress.com/2009/07/16/worst-may-be-over-for-the-housing-market/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC  canadian funding corp CEO

More than half a million Canadians have fallen behind on their various credit payments, fuelling a 19 per cent rise in the average national delinquency rate in the one-year period ending May 31, 2009, says a new report from Equifax Canada.

The credit bureau called the double-digit jump “alarming,” noting the average delinquency rate for Canada hit 1.52 per cent at the end of May.

Much of the trouble stemmed from missed payments on credit card bills and for sales finance purchases of items such as furniture and electronics.

Equifax defines delinquent bills as those that are at least 90 days overdue.

Nadim Abdo, an Equifax vice-president, stressed the “sharpest increase” in delinquencies resulted from credit card and sales finance purchases, which have risen by 38 per cent and 58 per cent, respectively, since May 2008.

Rising delinquencies in those areas are troubling because consumers tend to miss payments on those unsecured credit products before they fail to pay back collateral-backed loans such as mortgages, bank loans and lines of credit, Abdo said.

US Credit Card Delinquency Rate Jumps 11 Percent

Inquiring minds might be asking for a comparison between Canada and the US. For the answer, please consider 1Q credit card delinquency rate jumps 11 percent.

Credit card holders who in ordinary years might have used their tax refunds to pay down their balances apparently spent the money elsewhere as the recession deepened in the first quarter.

That’s one of the conclusions that may be drawn from data showing the delinquency rate for bank-issued credit cards rose 11 percent in the first three months of the year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.

The delinquency rate jumped to 1.32 percent this year, from 1.19 percent in the first three months of 2008, TransUnion said. The statistic measures the percentage of card holders who are three months or more past due on their payments for cards bearing MasterCard and Visa logos, along with American Express and Discover cards.

The average total debt on bank cards also rose, jumping to $5,776 from $5,548 last year.

TransUnion measures credit card delinquencies at 90 days, but tracks mortgage delinquencies at 60 days. Becker said that is because card payments are typically much smaller than mortgage payments, and it’s easier to catch up on past due cards. For people in financial distress, it’s much harder to produce two mortgage payments once they fall behind, he explained.

Not surprisingly, bank card delinquency rates remained the highest in the states hardest hit by the mortgage meltdown: Nevada, Florida, Arizona and California.

North and South Dakota and Alaska, the states with the lowest rate of mortgage delinquencies, are also the states with the lowest credit card delinquencies, TransUnion data showed.

TransUnion, which samples 27 million consumer records to produce its data, expects the rate of credit card delinquencies to rise for the rest of the year, ultimately reaching about 1.7 percent.

Note that the US rate was a comparison of March 2009 to March 2008 while the rate for Canada was a comparison of May 2009 to May 2008. Thus Canada and the US are following a similar path.

Dynamic Maps

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has Dynamic Maps of Bank Card and Mortgage Delinquencies in the United States that some may wish to consider.

In regards to mortgages, Canada has some “catching down” to do, and it will. All the bubble areas such as Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, etc are going to get hit hard.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

http://offshoreinn.com/investing/500000-canadians-90-days-behind-on-credit-payments-delinquency-rate-hits-152-us-delinquency-rate-is-132/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards totaled 49,521 units in May 2009. This is less than one per cent below activity in the same month one year ago. Year-over-year declines have been shrinking since the beginning of the year.

The seasonal increase in activity continues to be stronger than normal. As a result, seasonally adjusted home sales rose eight per cent to 37,649 units in May compared to April. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase in seasonally adjusted activity. Seasonally adjusted activity in May was 43 per cent above where it stood in January 2009.

Seasonally adjusted sales were up on a monthly basis in about 70 per cent of local markets. Monthly activity gains in Toronto (nine per cent), Calgary (25 per cent), Montreal (10 per cent), Vancouver (eight per cent), and Edmonton (12 per cent) contributed most to the overall increase in monthly activity.

The national MLS® residential average sale price in May 2009 reached the highest monthly level on record. At $319,757, it was up fourth tenths of a percentage point from the previous record set in May 2008. Over the past four months, the national MLS® residential average price has recovered 16.4 per cent from the low in January. The average price for MLS® home sales climbed to new heights nationally, and in Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. New records were posted in only 15 per cent of local markets in May, none of which are among the most active or expensive. The strong rebound in sales activity, not price, in Canada’s most expensive markets is driving up average prices nationally and in some provinces, just as a sharp decline in activity in these markets pushed average prices lower in late 2008.

The supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market continued to decelerate in May. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings edged lower by eight tenths of a percentage point to 65,070 units, the lowest level since December 2005. Seasonally adjusted new residential listings in May were 19 per cent below the peak reached one year ago.

With the number of sales rising strongly and new listings trending downward, the balance between supply and demand is firming up in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec. This resulted in national sales activity as a percentage of new listings reaching the highest point since December 2007. Residential dollar volume for MLS® sales climbed 10 per cent from the previous month to reach $11.4 billion in May. This is more than 50 per cent above the low of $7.5 billion reported last January.

“Sales activity is now closer to the pre-recession peak than it is to the recent low point reached last January,” says Regina Broker Dale Ripplinger, President of The Canadian Real Estate Association. “Strengthening consumer confidence, low interest rates, and improved affordability are drawing buyers to the housing market across Canada,” he added.

“Fueled by a string of monthly increases in activity, the number of transactions in May reached the highest point since July 2008,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Inventory levels are still high in many markets, but fewer new listings and rising sales activity suggests that the selection of homes available for sale may shrink as the year progresses. The supply of homes up for sale needs to be drawn down further before average price increases become more widespread among local markets.”

http://www.muchmormagazine.com/2009/06/national-resale-housing-continues-to-rise/

But rebounding sales in some of the most expensive markets skewed the national average price, the Canadian Real Estate Association said in the report.

The average home price last month rose 0.4 percent to C$319,757 ($282,971), topping the previous record set a year earlier. It was the first year-over-year increase since May last year.

The average price has recovered 16.4 percent from the low reached in January, CREA said.

Home sales rose 8 percent to 37,649 units in May from April, the fourth consecutive monthly increase on a seasonally adjusted basis.

At the start of the year, the year-over-year drop in sales was a staggering 41 percent and the declines have narrowed since. Nationally, 49,521 units changed hands in May, down 0.8 percent from a year ago.

‘In the short space of about 18 months, the housing market has gone full circle from a sellers’ market, to a flat-out buyers’ market, and back to a sellers’ market,’ said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

He cautioned that further gains may be tougher to come by with a still-weak Canadian employment outlook.

‘The housing market is not about to go off to the races, even if it has been pulled back from the brink.’

Of the 25 major markets that CREA tracks, 14 reported rises in unit sales year-over-year, with five markets, mostly in the western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, posting double-digit increases.

Those same markets had suffered the biggest drops only several months ago.

Prices rose in 14 markets from a year ago, led by a 17.3 percent increase in Newfoundland and Labrador and a 12.1 percent climb in Saint John, New Brunswick.

‘New records were posted in only 15 percent of local markets in May, none of which are among the most active or expensive,’ CREA said.

‘The strong rebound in sales activity, not price, in Canada’s most expensive markets is driving up average prices nationally and in some provinces, just as a sharp decline in activity in these markets pushed average prices lower in late 2008.’

New listings eased by 0.8 percent to 65,070 units, the lowest since December 2005.

($1=$1.13 Canadian)

(Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; Editing by Frank McGurty) Keywords: CANADA HOUSING/

(kayan.ng@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging: kayan.ng.reuters.com@reuters.net; 416-941-8109)

http://www.xe.com/news/2009/06/15/485397.htm